Moisture today stays north of the state line, with rain showers in Michigan. WE may see some offshoot clouds down into extreme northern Indiana at times, but they will not yield much precipitation threat at all. This dry pattern goes through at least early Friday afternoon before we have our next frontal boundary move in. Scattered showers over central Indiana Friday afternoon will morph into a significant rain and thunderstorm event after sunset Friday right on through Saturday. Rain totals overnight Friday night can be from .1”-1.25” with coverage at 80% of areas north of I-70. Through Saturday we can add another few hundredths to .3” of rain, again north of I-70. South of the 70, no rain is expected now through the weekend. Rain moves out of northern Indiana for Sunday, and we should see some good sunshine in most areas. The above map shows a snapshot of potential precipitation around midnight Friday night.
Next week we are extending the dry pattern from Monday through all of Wednesday. The midweek system is pushing back 24-36 hours and now looks to have better coverage statewide. WE like rains for next Thursday at .25”-1.25” over 75% of the state, with the potential for some stronger thunderstorms. This will be needed, especially in areas like southern Indiana, where we miss out on most of the rains between now and next Thursday. Temps will drop to closer to normal levels behind the front.
The rest of the 10 day period is dry and sunny as we finish next week. The next good front we see may hold off until late in the 11-16 day period, with a strong front in the upper Midwest around the 4th, moving in here toward the 5th. Also, early in the extended period, we still are watching for a trough around the 31st into the 1st, but we think that the moisture next Thursday into Friday is enough stronger that it may rob energy from that next potential system. It still is a disturbance we are watching, but we are not as keen on making a big deal of it in our current forecast.
Temps will be above normal the rest of the week and start of the weekend but may settle back closer to normal for Sunday and early next week. Strong south flow will bump those temps up again toward midweek next week, ahead of that strong Thursday system.