Much more rain lasted much longer than expected yesterday over northern Indiana. This just makes the next 2 days all that more interesting, as our atmosphere is primed for shower and thunderstorm development on any whim. We have showers and thunderstorms possible almost at will today over about 60% of the state with rain totals of a few hundredths to up to half an inch. However, the bigtime action likely develops overnight through tomorrow morning in northeast Indiana, as the axis of strongest storms runs from MI through to central OH. WE can see severe weather after sunset tonight in northeast Indiana and heavy rains through sunrise tomorrow. There can be plenty of 1-2 inch showers of rain in Steuben, DeKalb, Lagrange, Noble, Elkhart and even St. Joe Counties, and then some half to 1.5” inch rains in Allen, Whitley and Kosciusko. However, further south, we see nothing over the rest of the state. The map above shows total precipitation from this morning through Saturday afternoon. Temps will be very warm today and hot tomorrow over the state, before pulling back a bit for the Sunday period and early next week. But, even with the pull back, we expect above normal temps.
Next week is dry for Monday through Thursday. On Friday we have a front sweeping through that can bring from .1” to .5” of rain over about 60% of the state. This front looked stronger yesterday but has fallen apart some. That is mostly due to the strong drying we have ahead of the front and then the move back to strong upper-level high pressure immediately behind it. This moisture will not be enough to compensate for the warmth we expect in the short term.
In the extended forecast window, we still are watching for a front around the 1st into the 2nd, but it remains unimpressive for the most part. A stronger front is ready to move in for the 5th, and it can have half inch rains or better. That front at least has the potential to trigger some thunderstorms, as cooler Canadian high pressure is on the backside, meaning we should see a bigger air mass change with the front. Stay tuned.