We may be looking at just 1 significant threat of precipitation out of the next 2 weeks! It is hard to fathom, especially after stronger thunderstorms made it farther south over the weekend than we anticipated going home Friday. But, still, models are setting us up on a much drier pattern over the Hoosier state. Let’s take a look at the details.
Today, tomorrow and Wednesday will be dry, with much lower humidity settling in over the region. WE should see full sunshine and temps that are above normal, but with a feel that is not as oppressive as what we had to start this past weekend. WE look for west winds to be light through the period.
A good cool front moves in for Thursday, bringing rains around midday to NW Indiana, and then spreading south and southeast through the afternoon, evening and overnight. WE look for rain totals of .25”-.75” over about 90% of the state. Most of the state should miss out on the major thunderstorm chances, but we can see some thunderstorms ramp up in the southern third to the southern quarter of the state overnight Thursday night into early Friday. Anywhere those stronger storms break out, 1”+ spots of rain may be seen. Still, most of the action is done and gone by mid-morning Friday. The map above shows a snapshot of the potential set up early Thursday afternoon.
The rest of the week and weekend looks dry with Friday transitioning back to the sunshine with temps close to normal. The weekend will be warmer with plenty of sunshine. Then Monday through Wednesday of next week we have additional sunshine and warm air with high pressure sitting right on top of the eastern Corn Belt. Temps continue to be mostly above normal through next week.
The extended period has high pressure remaining in control through next Friday. Our next weak front to watch will be arriving late the 4th through the first half of Saturday the 5th. Rain totals do not look overly impressive at this time. However, we can see anywhere from a few hundredth to up to half an inch if we are lucky. At this time, we are downplaying this system a bit, as we want to see a stronger front before we call for good rains. If we miss this front, there is nothing for the rest of the period, meaning we have just the 1 threat of rain between now and the 8th of August. So, a lot rides on that system. Strong upper-level high pressure is back in for the 6th-7th-8th to finish the extended window.
This kind of pattern, if it does truly emerge as we think, will lead to complaints in early August of “needing a rain” in many areas, even with the over the top moisture we have received in spots in the past few days.