A strong cold front moves into the state today and will trigger some moderate to heavy rains in the state. The latest look at this set up puts central Indiana in the biggest risk zone for strong thunderstorms and heavy rains. While we are not ruling out good moisture over the northern third of the state, models seem to be shortchanging that region just a bit here as we move forward. We are raising the top end of our rain totals range to 2” this morning. If we are to break it down, we likely see .25”-.75” over about 70% of the northern third of the state, half to 2” in the central part of the state and .25”-1” in the southern third of the state. The biggest concern will be heavy rains creating new flooding or flash flooding in the central and southern parts of the state. However, most action will be out of the state by tonight. The map above shows total precipitation potential through tomorrow morning.
As we expect much drier air to move in going forward, tomorrow will be a bit of a transition day. The Sunshine tries to poke through behind the front, but we suspect there will be some minor moisture still lingering over the state. So, while a large part the state will be dry, we are going to keep an eye out for scattered showers over about 30% of the state. We likely see more clouds on Friday than we do the rest of the week following.
We will be dry over the entire state from Saturday through next Thursday. Several strong high-pressure domes will slide across the region, giving plenty of sun, and temps normal to above normal. It will be likely the 2nd longest continuous dry stretch for the state this summer.
Our next front, as disorganized as it is, is looking to speed its arrival a bit later next week. We are having to put showers back into the forecast for next Friday afternoon (4th) even though they will have coverage of only about 50% of the state, and that could be limited more to the northern half. A second wave of action may try and still work in for late the 5th into the 6th. Moisture totals look to be mostly from .25”-.6”, but the highly disorganized nature of this set up leads us to be less confident on moisture totals. The overall extended period continues to project a wetter bias, with scattered showers possible off and on from the 5th right on through the 10th. Moisture is not overly heavy, but we are not getting a lot of guidance that things clear out either. A strong front is developing around the 11th over the great plains, so that would hint at a good strong line of showers and thunderstorms here around the 12th into the 13th. If that front is as strong as we suspect, the light, hit and miss stuff ahead of it in the 11-16 day window likely would not be as prolific.
So, with the uncertainty in the extended period, we are going to leave our forecast alone out there, with an eye for better moisture changes as we move toward mid-August.