We have a north vs. south set up over the state today. Moisture will be building through the day south of I-70, while we stay dry north. Rains south of I-70 will range from .25” on the low end to as much as an inch and a half on the high end if we see stronger thunderstorms develop this afternoon. That will be most likely over eastern areas, but we won’t rule it out anywhere at this point. Coverage of rains will be 80% of areas south of I-70, and again, nothing north. We may have some clouds to deal with the closer you get to the I-70 corridor from the north. The map above shows rain totals through this evening.
Scattered showers pop up over north central and eastern Indiana tomorrow, but will be minor in scope. WE can see a few hundredths to perhaps 3 tenths of an inch, with coverage at only 40% of the state.
Dry for all of Saturday and through midday Sunday. Then showers and thunderstorms work in for Sunday afternoon and evening. These will bring .25”-.75” spots of rain to about 60% of the state. These are not really associated with any dynamic front, but rather just some heat based instability over the region that will feed into a minor trough.
Dry for Monday.
Our strongest front of the period will hit Tuesday of next week. This front looks impressive with rain totals of a half to 2 inches and coverage of 90% of the state. There is a high likelihood of severe weather and strong thunderstorms. This will be the event to watch, mostly because of the coverage of moderate to excessive rains.
Dry Wednesday and Thursday of next week and only a few isolated showers move in next Friday. Those will be limited to a few hundredths or a tenth or two, and coverage will be 40% or less. In fact, we think there is a good chance those Friday showers dissipate as an upper-level ridge develops.
That ridge brings dryness from next Saturday, the 15th, right on through Wednesday the 19th. 5 straight days of warm, dry air in play. Scattered showers move in for the 20th, with coverage of 60% at half an inch or less, then we turn off dry again for the 21st through the remainder of the week. So, there is some warmth and dryness in the intermediate and extended forecast at this time, and that also needs to be watched. WE actually will need to have those moderate to heavy rains Tuesday of next week if the dry pattern emerges as we expect.