Scattered precipitation works across the state today. These scattered showers will not be overly strong, but we will likely be able to trigger a few hundredths to .3” of rain over about 60% of the state. There will be a slightly better chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon in east and southeast parts of the state. WE then turn dry for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week we have a strong cold front working in from the west and north. Instead of this rain all coming Tuesday, we are drawing out the passage of moisture. In fact, the best rains may develop overnight Tuesday night through Wednesday, when strong thunderstorms and severe weather is a concern. Rain totals remain at .5”-2” over 90% of the state. The only difference in this forecast vs. 24 hours ago is the fact that we are adding an additional day to the precipitation event. The map above shows a snapshot of potential action next Wednesday morning.
Behind that front, we turn off dry fairly quickly. We may have some clouds lingering for Thursday of next week, and it may not immediately feel dry for that day either, but we have no significant threat of precipitation for Thursday, and then a dry period for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and into the following week. In fact, we see a strong upper level high and developing ridge moving in, and we think temps will really rise quickly for the end of next week and into the following week, averaging at least 6-7 degrees above normal through the extended period. The next threat of rain in the extended 11-16 day window will be around the 22nd, and even that does not look overly impressive at this point. However, models are suggesting a tropical system moving over FL and up into the southeast around the 20th-22nd, and the current projections would shove some moisture up into Appalachia and even into the lower OH Valley. This will be something to watch as we move through next week. While an upper-level ridge normally spells hot and dry over the region, if you get some tropical moisture trapped under the ridge, it can bring a moist pattern back in quickly. So, that potential tropical event could be a significant wild card for the last 10 days of the month.