Scattered showers and thunderstorms had better coverage and intensity yesterday than we expected. We mention this because 1) a good meteorologist always admits missing the mark, and 2) our next cold front does not move through until tomorrow. That means that we have an atmospheric setup today similar to yesterday. If we see good sunshine and heating through the day, we have the potential to light up with thunderstorms again this afternoon. If we remain cloudy…general scattered showers will be more the case. Still, we see action across about 60% of the state today and when combined with tomorrow’s frontal passage, we can see 80% coverage with rain totals of an additional .25”-1”.
Dry Friday. Then this weekend we have two frontal boundaries trying to push through. Models are not as impressive with moisture on the latest runs, but we are going to leave our forecast mostly alone this morning for the period. .5”-1.5” on Saturday with 70% coverage and .5”-1.5” later Sunday into early Monday with coverage at 70%. The only changes there are backing the top end of Sundays range down from 2” on our previous forecast, and backing coverage up to 70%. The map above shows rain totals through sunrise Monday morning.
Dry Monday and Tuesday with high pressure settling in. A system on Wednesday still has the potential to be very strong and a heavy rain maker. However, models are pulling back from the heaviest rains on that system too, just like this weekend. We still think we can see some precipitation, but honestly, our thought all along is that we will see some significant ridging next week and that will take away the development potential of any midweek system. AT this time, we will still keep an eye out for shower sand thunderstorms, but have rain totals of .25”-1” at most, and think we will likely need to whittle that back in the days ahead. Dry weather is back for next Thursday, and holds though most of the extended period, through the 27th.
A cold front remains likely toward the end of the month around the 28th, but probably will not be strong enough to break the ridge. AS such, we think that rain totals of half an inch or less will be what develops, and coverage can be around 70%.
Temps still above normal today, near normal tomorrow into the weekend. But then next week we expect a surge to well above normal levels again, as that upper-level ridge builds.