The forecast is improved this morning as we head into the weekend. We still have some rain moving into the state, but it continues to look to delay its start. We now think that we see most of tomorrow (Saturday) stay dry, in addition to today. Scattered showers may not push into NW Indiana until late Saturday afternoon, spreading across the state overnight Saturday night. We do see a slightly better chance at thunderstorm development in north central and NE Indiana for Sunday morning, and then showers move south-southeast through the day. All told, we will put rain totals at .25”-1”, with the high end of the range reserved for areas with thunderstorms to start Sunday morning. Coverage will be 60%, meaning a good chunk of the state will see precipitation of half an inch or less. The map above shows rain totals as of Sunday evening.
Dry weather returns for Monday, and at this point we think most of next week will stay dry. North winds on the backside of the storm complex Monday may keep temps down a bit, but in general, we will see normal to above normal temps over the state through the week. The only area of concern right now is a weak front that slides into the state Thursday. WE think this promotes mostly cloud cover, but we will be keeping an eye out for spits and sprinkles out of that over about 30% of the state. There is no significant threat of moisture at this time.
We are taking rain out of the forecast for next weekend at this time. Clouds may be around for Saturday, but we don’t think they bring a chance for more than a few spits here and there. There is a minor trough involved with this, and if it strengthens, we will have to tweak the forecast wetter again. But, if the week turns out as dry as we expect, it will be hard to overcome that dry atmosphere with just a small minor trough during the period. Sunday should also be dry.
We start the extended period with a strong low sitting over the great lakes on the 12th, with a cold front extending west southwest. However, that low is slow to move, and the front may not sag into the state until closer to the 14th. Once it comes through, we see rain potential of .25”-1.25” with coverage at 100% of the state. Right now this is slated for the 14th-15th…but timing depends on movement of that low over the great lakes. Another strong low pressure system developing in the northern plains/western corn belt/upper Midwest for the 17th likely brings rains to the Hoosier state around the 18th, with rain potential of .25”-.75”.