Drier weather moves into the state today after better than expected rain and thunderstorm action materialized over the region yesterday. We should see little to no rain potential in the short haul part of the forecast, although models are suggesting a few scattered showers may slink close to the Michigan line tonight. The Sunshine will be a dominant player in the forecast tomorrow and Thursday, with strong southwest flow heating things up Thursday afternoon. This will be a key for our Friday forecast, as increased heat and energy will allow for significant instability in our atmosphere.
A cold front arrives on Friday, nosing into that warm air mass and instability. WE expect rain and thunderstorms to break out, and the thunderstorms can be strong to severe, especially in the first half of the day. We expect rain totals of .25”-1.25” over about 80% of the state. The front moves quickly, with rains done in all areas except in the southern quarter of the state by Friday evening, and even south we should see rains end by midnight Friday. The map above shows a snapshot of the potential set up at midnight Friday night. Saturday should be dry.
The second wave of moisture moves in for Sunday and again, it can have good thunderstorm potential. The front is not all that impressive to start with, with just general rains and showers over NW areas where it comes through late morning and midday. But, as the afternoon rolls on and the front sweeps farther south and east, better chances for strong to severe thunderstorm action emerge. We are putting rain totals for Sunday at .25”-1.5” with coverage at 80%. The best heavy rain threats are in east central and southern Indiana.
Drying out for Monday and high pressure is in control for Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday morning. A weak front slips through north and northeast Indiana Wednesday afternoon and may trigger up to a quarter of an inch of moisture. Coverage will be 50% or less in areas north of I-70 and east of US 31. Negligible precipitation chances elsewhere.
The rest of the week finishes dry in all locations. In the extended window, models are in quite a bit of disagreement. One model brings a front in for the 1st and 2nd, with moderate to heavy rains. Another shows ridging, hot and drier weather for the 11-16 day window. Our bias to this point has been warmer and drier…so we will continue with that thought process until we see something that truly can build consensus differently…something that is not just a single, flip-floppy, medium range forecast model.