A cold front approaches from the west and northwest today, but rain may start sooner thanks to the off shoots of Tropical storm Cindy. This storm has pushed ashore and is starting to throw some serious precipitation up through the lower Mississippi river valley. Most of the state will see sunshine and warm air today with strong southwest flow. But, clouds will increase over southern Indiana very quickly and we are leaving the door open for some rains starting this afternoon. Going into this evening, we have potential for moderate to heavy rains over far southern Indiana while the storms still moves north and start to curve northeast. There is a threat of strong thunderstorm action as well. Meanwhile, off to the northwest, our cold front starts to move in. However, good moisture from the cold front will be mostly limited to tomorrow. All told, from the front we are keeping rain totals at .25”-1” through tomorrow, while the far southern part of the state can see some 1-2 inch rains or more, if the remains of Cindy are able to come int. Rains may be toward the upper end of the .25”-1” range south of I-70, but north of US 50, due to renegade thunderstorms. The map above shows the likely track of Cindy through the end of the week…with a track just south of the OH river, areas along and just north of the river will be in-line to see some significant rains and even some wind.
Drier weather is back for Saturday and most of Sunday. WE can’t completely rule out a few showers on Sunday, but they will be limited to about 40% coverage with rain totals of a few hundredths to .3”. These may skew to the northern half of the state.
High pressure is in control for Monday through Wednesday of next week. Temps should move higher in the period. Thursday, models suggest a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in, but we think that is jumping the gun a bit. We like better rain potential for next Friday, with rains of .25”-.75” and coverage of 80%.
Farther out, the extended period has dry weather following that late week front next week through the holiday weekend. We finally are seeing some consensus of models with our thought process and forecast that we have had for the early part of July for the past 4-5 days. Our next good front in the extended window may hold off until the 6th and 7th with rain potential of half to 1” and coverage at 70%.
Temps will be cool this weekend, but should move higher next week, eventually getting to above normal levels statewide.