While our next frontal boundary does not arrive until tomorrow night into Friday, we still are dealing with a bit of instability in the atmosphere. We should see less of a chance of scattered showers this evening, but we still won’t rule it out anywhere. In the meantime, we should see the sunshine through a good part of the day today and tomorrow. Tomorrow warmer air does surge northeast, allowing temps to climb along with the humidity.
That next front comes in tomorrow night and looks stronger. We see rain going all through Friday. We are raising rain totals up to .5”-1.5” with coverage at 80% of the state. There is a much better threat of strong to severe weather out of this event, and we have some concern about heavier rains over southern Indiana. These may be enhanced by the remains of tropical storm Cindy moving through areas just south of the OH River. Still, keep an eye out for some fairly significant rains Thursday night through Friday. The map is a snapshot of potential action Friday midday to early afternoon. This is likely the farthest north that the heavy tropical enhanced precipitation will go.
Drier Saturday, and now it looks like Sunday may turn out mostly dry as well. WE think that the tropical storm over the Southeast will draw energy away from the region for the weekend and now look for only a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 30% of the state on Sunday. This is a change, but one that looks pretty solid, given the impact of the tropical event.
Next week we are also looking at a drier outlook. We see no chance of rain Monday through Wednesday, and there can be only a few scattered showers in for Thursday. Honestly, we think that a good chunk of next week will be dry, and temps should be heating up.
The extended period is still very unsettled, with no model agreement whatsoever. We are leaving our outlook alone, looking warm and dry for the period, until something builds consensus to make us change.
Overall, this forecast is much wetter to close this work week, and there is a threat of flooding and major rains in southern Indiana, but the rest of the 10 days to 2 week period is drier and should turn warmer. That being said, temps will be no better than normal today, Friday and Saturday.