A few tweaks to the forecast this morning. Generally, we are keeping similar rain totals for the overall 10 day period. But, we are spreading out the moisture that is coming in for the rest of this week, weekend and next week.
First things first: we have a nice, sunny, dry day today still over the entire state. We are on the backside of a strong high-pressure dome and that will swing winds around to the south. In fact, those winds look to increase through the day, allowing for significant warming statewide, and a very breezy afternoon and evening. This will be a nice day over the state.
Tomorrow, we still have a strong cold front moving toward us. However, it looks to not be quite as quick and the moisture is not leading the charge, at least at first. Our daytime precipitation tomorrow may be pretty light, with minimal coverage. The best showers and thunderstorms kick off tomorrow evening and then especially overnight and through Friday. We like our .25”-1” rain totals for the event, but most of that will come overnight tomorrow night through Friday. Coverage will end up around 80%.
The biggest change in our forecast is on timing for the next system. AT this time, we look for a mostly dry start to the holiday weekend. WE think that Saturday and Sunday both can be dry, with our next system waiting until early next week. Clouds may still play a central role early Saturday, but it should be a warmer and more humid weekend in the wake of the front tomorrow night and Friday. Temps will be normal to above normal. This dry pattern actually stretches through the first part of Monday, but from late Monday afternoon right on through Tuesday the 4th, we can see our next strong wave move through. This front looks much more powerful, now that it has delayed a couple of days and strengthened. WE can see a rain of .5”-1.5” across 100% of the state. If severe weather develops, there is potential for some 2”+ showers of rain…but, for now, we are not going to hype those up. Still, what this means is that 1) we have plentiful rains coming as we start July, and 2) the holiday itself (4th) is hosed. The map shows a snapshot of the potential precipitation set up around midnight July 3rd…this pattern will lead to a wet 4th.
Behind that system, much drier weather settles in for the balance of next week with high pressure in control. That pattern continues through the 11-16 day forecast window as well, and we think there may be an upper-level ridge developing for that period. What that means is that we can see very warm and dry weather developing late next week through mid-month. So, perhaps the heavy rain we have coming will be useful after all?