No change in the forecast this morning, and it still is a mostly dry forecast. We will be rain free through the entire state through Friday. A weak upper-level disturbance can trigger a few scattered showers across the northern half of the state to start off Saturday morning, but rain totals will be only a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch with 40% coverage. The rest of the weekend will remain dry, as will next Monday.
Our next significant front arrives next Tuesday. We are looking at a strong cold front sweeping through from NW to SE. This will bring .25”-1” drops of rain to about 70% of the state, although most areas that get rain will see under .4”. The larger totals will be triggered by scattered to isolated thunderstorms. There is a threat of severe weather, but not widespread at this point. The map above shows a snapshot of action next Tuesday evening. he
Dry for next Wednesday, but then a powerful storm complex is coming in for late next Thursday into Friday. This is a little faster than we had been seeing, with the best rain days on the 15th into the 16th, rather than the 16th and 17th. But still, it’s good rain potential with totals of .5”-1.5” possible. This is the system that likely has the best chance of severe weather. Rain coverage will be around 80%.
The extended forecast period is drier this morning. As that strong system exists to start the extended period, it takes all major energy with it, and we see the potential for a larger upper-level ridge to build in. that will keep the region dry for the 17th through the 21st. A strong low moving across Canada toward the end of the extended period may give some hope for precipitation closer to the 22nd and 23rd…but we think that it has the better chance of missing the state to the north at this time.