Continued dry today through the weekend and early next week. Temps will remain cool, slightly below normal today into tomorrow, but will warm up for the weekend and will spend most of the upcoming period normal to above normal.
Our next frontal boundary arrives next Tuesday, but it’s looking to be a little later, most likely in the afternoon and evening. The best rains will develop Wednesday. Right now we are going to leave our rain totals at .25”-1” over 80% of the state. However, if the action delays a bit further and we can get some better chances of strong to severe weather on Wednesday that will allow for some heavier rains to develop. So, while we are not making wholesale changes to the forecast at this time, we are keeping our eyes on this period, because heavy thunderstorms and severe weather would allow for some 1-3” rains Wednesday, particularly in the afternoon, mostly over central Indiana. Time will tell. For now, it looks like those rains will be our best chances in the next 10 days.
Models continue to wrestle with the next system after that, pushing it back to the 17th again. Rain totals still look like they can be in the half to 1.5” range with coverage at 80%. Temps will be warm.
The extended forecast period remains mostly dry, but we are seeing chances for another front around the 20th, which could trigger .25”-1” rain over 70% of the state. Models are not in agreement in the extended period, though, and we think what happens there will depend greatly on how next Tuesday-Wednesday plays out. If we get heavier rains, that primes us for a more active period. IF the system next week falls apart or is underwhelming…that likely leads to a dry period extension into the last half of the month. So…there may be a lot riding on next week’s event by the time we get there.