No change in our thoughts about a very active pattern for the coming 10 days to 2 weeks! We kicked the pattern off this weekend with some good rains, and we still see another 3-4 systems ahead of us. This pattern will promote ample to surplus soil moisture as we head into April.
We have a little bit of a break through most of the day today and we should see some sunshine in here. However, from late afternoon and tonight through tomorrow morning as will see our next wave move into the state from the west and southwest, bringing rain totals of .25”-.5” with coverage at 70% of the state. This rain should be done by no later than mid morning.
A drier period is in for the balance of tomorrow, through Wednesday and most of Thursday morning. Temps remain mostly above normal. Clouds build Thursday and rains start to work in with more frequency Thursday afternoon and night. The initial batch of moisture is not all that impressive, but we see better rain and thunderstorm action in for Friday. The combined 2 day totals for Thursday and Friday will be from .25”-1” with coverage at 90% of the state.
Dry for Saturday, and then Sunday we start to see our next system move in. That is going to be a big system. To start, it does not look that impressive, but rather just a slow, sagging little batch of rain along a frontal boundary. But, the stronger low pressure circulation comes in for late Sunday night through Monday and into early Tuesday. This low will trigger moderate to heavy rain and an outbreak of heavy thunderstorms. Rain totals will be significant. WE look for at least half to 2 inch rain totals over 100% of the state for the Sunday night Monday period. As we go into Tuesday, the rains are not done, but we transition onto the backside of the storm circulation, meaning we see wrap around moisture. These rains will not be as significant, but have the potential to add an additional half inch of moisture. That means we think a large part of the state can see at least 1-2 inches to start the week. The circulation is strong enough that we might be able to see clouds and hit/miss moisture even into Wednesday.
In the extended window, another front is likely around the 6th-7th, but will not be as strong as what we see to start next week…with rains only up to half an inch. While temps look good for the period, it will definitely be wet.