Rain chances tomorrow, tomorrow night and Friday also look smaller. We won’t completely rule out rains, but action over the northern two-thirds of the state will essentially be nothing, and over the southern third of the state, we can see a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, mostly through Friday. Now, there still is a trough and an area of low pressure moving by, so if there is any access to a better moisture source, we would have to go wetter again. But, the track of the low at this time is far enough west and north of the state that we think we can escape with little threat of rain in many areas.
Weekend precipitation still looks strong, mostly from late Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Rain totals will be from .5”-1.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. WE should see dry weather over a large part of the state through 3 pm Saturday, but clouds will be building. Thunderstorms will be what spooks the higher end of the range, and some models are even suggesting higher totals in those areas. WE will sit tight for now. The best area for thunderstorm development will be central Indiana.
Dry for the balance of Monday and also Tuesday. A very strong storm complex is back on Wednesday into early Thursday. That system brings half to 1.5” rain totals with coverage at 90% of the state. Thunderstorms again will be the key driver of heavier rains.
A strong storm system is still on the way for Memorial Day weekend but is facing a few delays in arrival. Currently, it looks like the best threat of rain over the state will be late Sunday through Memorial Day itself. Rain totals can be from half to 1.25” with coverage at 100%. WE follow that up with another system around the 31st into the 1st, but action there looks less impressive. Shortly after the turn of the month, we may see a strong upper-level ridge start to build in over the state. It’s being hinted at now…but will still have a lot of hurdles to overcome if it truly is going to develop.