The book has officially been closed on our extended period of dry weather. As we have been talking, the pattern is going to get more active going forward. Dry windows will shrink down to about 2-3 days in-between systems as the most, and we will see a nice uptick in precipitation. That begins today (actually late yesterday last night) as scattered showers fire off across the state. Action today looks to be a little more frequent and coverage a little better than our last look. We are looking at rain totals from .1”-.6” with coverage at 60% of the state today. It will not be an all-day event, but we can’t rule out showers at any time. Temps also should be a good 15-20 degrees cooler today with the clouds and post frontal air.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to be an issue for this weekend, but are moving the timeframe forward for the event. We can see showers pretty much right out of the gate tomorrow with a threat of thunderstorms developing later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. We still see a decent chance of strong to severe weather with this system’s passage. Rain tapers off Sunday, and we likely will be done with precipitation by midday. All told, we look for .5”- 1.5” of rain for the Saturday-early Sunday period with coverage at 90% of the state. This will be a good, soaking rain in many areas. Clouds can give way to late day sun on Sunday.
Dry and sunny Monday, but that will not be a period that can really be utilized. Clouds start to increase again Tuesday and by mid-afternoon Tuesday we can see scattered showers developing. Precipitation totals on Tuesday will be minor, only a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch, but that does mean that we likely see very little additional drying Tuesday. Heavy rains are in for Wednesday with thunderstorms, some strong, and the rains will linger through the first part of Thursday. Wednesday-Thursday action yields .5”-2” of rain over 100% of the state. That will be a very solid rain event that everyone gets. Clouds hold firm for the rest of Thursday even after the rains are done.
We finish the week Friday with sunshine, but clouds start to build back in next Saturday as we start the memorial day holiday weekend. Showers develop Saturday afternoon and continue into early Sunday. This batch of rain does not look as impressive this morning as it did 2 days ago…so we may escape with only .25”-.5” of rain for the late Saturday-Sunday period. Coverage will be around 75% of the state. We finish the holiday weekend dry for Monday the 29th, with strong high-pressure building in.