We are dry today in the sense that we have no new precipitation moving into the state through late afternoon. However, clouds and an overall damp feel will still be around after the moderate to heavy rains we saw 36 hours ago over the state. As such, today likely does not feature very much drying, but that is something we had been expecting anyway. Action starts back up overnight tonight, as a few showers start to work into the state, mostly in central Indiana, and they drift north.
Our holiday weekend starts wet with significant rains tomorrow and Sunday. In fact, we are going to have to do something this morning we absolutely abhor: the dreaded flip flop. Apologies up front….nobody likes a flip flopping forecast, but when your meteorologist is wrong, at least give him credit for stepping up and admitting his “suckage” like a man. Anyway…the weekend system looks just as strong as advertised early in the week, and that means we have 2 waves moving through, with un-needed extra rains. We are putting rain totals back to .5”-1.5” combined over the two days with coverage at 80% for the weekend. Rains Sunday will not be lighter or have lower coverage…this will just be an all-out rain event for most of the state. The map above shows rain totals through midnight Sunday.
Monday remains dry statewide, with sun working through the clouds fairly easily. This comes as the weekend system is more “frontal” based, and sweeps through with a sharp clearing line, unlike the slow spinning cutoff low that we had yesterday. A good chunk of the state will be see this dryness continue into Tuesday. However, we do have some scattered showers that want to work through with a minor trough for Tuesday too. This may bring a few hundredths to at most .2” of rain to about 20-30% of the state. We really are looking to keep this moisture skewed toward the northern half or third of the state.
Mostly dry then for Wednesday through Friday. We would like to add Saturday as well, but we have 2 basic concerns about this period. First, models differ on timing, but all have at least a little bit of scattered shower action moving through the state in the midst of that dry stretch…whether its Wednesday Night-Thursday, or Thursday night into early Friday. Moisture is not much, but it gives us some pause. Then, a bigger concern is scattered showers that develop Friday night and hold into Saturday. Some models blow that up into bigtime thunderstorms over the southern third of the state, others suggest it all may fall apart and not amount to anything. Here is our take. In most other years, we would trend drier in this forecast. However, the atmosphere is wet. This year has been top 5 in terms of moisture for the April-May period. Our soils are soaked, and that along with everything else allows us to see rains develop a little easier. Also, with us being behind and really needing a number of days of dryness to count on…we are not going to promise anything. You should be ready to go if you can – we end up getting missed by all the minor chances in the 4-day stretch from Wednesday through Saturday. But…do not count on completely dry period either…we think that is unlikely. It will be mostly dry, but not completely dry.
In the extended window, we have our next strong front working in later on the 4th, bringing rains through the 5th and 6th. These rains can combine to bring 1”-2” to the state with coverage at 100%. But, behind that front, we should put together a nice dry stretch again, with no precipitation for the rest of the extended period, the 7th through the 10th, and likely the 11th too.