Rain moves through the state today and the system is expanding in strength and scope as it moves through. Today we are still looking at 1”-2.5” with coverage at 100% of the state. Where things get interesting will be tomorrow. We are looking for this system to slow and grow as the low moves to our east over OH and PA. This will likely lead to some wrap around backside moisture holding over the state all the way through tomorrow. We had been hoping it would leave in the morning, but we now think it will be an all day event. That can add another .25”-.75” of moisture to about 60% of the state. This is exactly not what is needed, and would raise our rain totals to 1.25”-3.25” over a good chunk of the state. The map above shows rain totals through tomorrow midnight, per the GFS model. It’s likely overdone by an inch or so over the northern part of the state, but the distribution of rain is spot on.
A minor wave is still on track to move through Saturday, bringing a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth or two to the state. Coverage will be about 70%, and the action will be done overnight Saturday night.
Dry, sunny weather returns on Sunday, although it will be cooler once again. Temps can push into the upper 30s over northeast Indiana Monday morning. But, we should see 2 and a half dry days – Sunday, Monday and the first part of Tuesday. Temps will climb Tuesday, as south flow returns.
As high pressure moves away Tuesday afternoon we see clouds starting to build ahead of our next system for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system looks now on the models the way we saw it last week, and this is the reason we did not want to change our forecast this week. WE look for .25”-.75” rain totals with the potential for a couple of areas to push closer to an inch. However, to get to the 1” mark, it will likely take some thunderstorm action, and we don’t think this is a major convective front at time of arrival in Indiana this time around. Coverage of rains will be 80%.
Dry for next Thursday, but then scattered showers are back for Friday and Saturday, and they look to organize better going into Sunday. Right now, we will look for combined 3 day rain totals of .25”-1”, but those totals can go up if this system organizes further and can tap into Gulf moisture.
So, if you are keeping track at home…that is 3 and a half days out of the next 10 with no precipitation in the state. And the 10 day cumulative rain totals can be 1.5”-4 inches. So, if max evaporation rate is .25” of moisture per day, our soil profile is already full (can’t really accept any more moisture “going down”…then using high tech “new math”, our planting equation becomes as follows:
A + B = “not gonna happen”
(Common core math makes the equation far more convoluted, uses pictures and makes generally no sense, but still reaches the same conclusion.)