Rain lingers over the state today on the backside of a strong low that moved through yesterday. We can see an additional .25”-.75” of rain today, although coverage should be a little lower than yesterday, with 60% of the state seeing the rains. Clouds will hold firm and temps stay cool, as north winds funnel into the state.
Clouds hold through tomorrow and we see a minor wave moving through from the northwest. This wave brings a few hundredths to perhaps a quarter of an inch of action to about 60% of the state. This will be very minor in comparison to what we have received over the past week to 8 days, but the appearance of moisture, no matter how minor, means we are not drying, which is what we need.
High pressure will move into the state Sunday, and will hold through Monday. That should bring sunshine and eventually some slightly warmer air in to the region. WE should see good evaporation rates those days with a max of .25” of moisture leaving per day through evaporation.
Clouds are back for next Tuesday with rain likely to follow quickly Tuesday afternoon. The showers run through Tuesday night and through the first part of Wednesday. We look for rain totals to be from .25”-.75” with coverage at 60% of the state. There will be some areas that don’t get new rains, but the clouds and overall saturated atmosphere likely slows drying for that Tuesday-Wednesday period, even in areas that do not see rains.
The rest of the week next week features a lot of clouds. There is not a lot of new precipitation in the forecast from Wednesday nigh through Saturday, but the atmospheric set up does not yield super-fast drying either. Scattered spits and sprinkles are likely in the Friday night time frame over about 30% of the state, and then next Saturday night into Sunday, we see scattered showers that bring a few hundredths up to .3” of rain potential over 50% of the state.
In the extended period, we are dry from later next Sunday (14th) through the first half of Tuesday (16th). This may be our longest consecutive dry period for the next 2 weeks at 2.5 days. We should see some sunshine in that period with high pressure quickly moving through. Following that, we shift back into a cloudy and damp pattern with scattered showers likely from the late afternoon and evening of the 16th right on through the 19th. Combined rain totals can be half to 1.5” inches over the 3.5 day period, with coverage at 80% of the state.
In our opinion, while this forecast clearly has less precipitation in it compared to what we saw over the past week, it still does not have enough consecutive dry days and enough dry periods to amply dry things out enough to move plant17 forward. We still estimate that significant planting progress here will have to wait until after May 20.