A dry cold front works through the state later today but all it will really do is play with our wind directions for about a 24-hour period. We expect no precipitation from the front and even clouds will not create too much of a distraction over the region. Temps stay in close to normal today, but will warm considerably for tomorrow through Friday. Strong southwest winds will also start to crank up for Thursday, holding into Friday until our next cold front arrives.
That cold front will be here late Friday afternoon, Friday night and into early Saturday. The front stretches north to hook up with a powerful low that will track across the upper Midwest into Canada later this week. We do not see a direct hit from the low, but the front will be strong enough, bringing grain totals of .25”-.75” with coverage at 80% of the state. We think there will be the potential for some thunderstorm action embedded in along the front, which is somewhat rare for mid-November. Behind the front, winds remain very strong, but switch to the north and northwest, bringing down significantly colder Canadian air.
With below normal temps for the weekend, it will be a definite shock to our systems across the Hoosier state. Temps will likely push below freezing Saturday night and will stay chilly for the daytime hours Sunday. Clouds will hold for most of Saturday with the strong north flow. We will start off next week with cool, but dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. However, we have our next front arriving for Wednesday, the 23rd. The latest models are now holding that moisture over into the 24th – Thanksgiving Day, with minor light totals. With the precipitation holding through the daylight hours, we think most of it for now will be liquid in nature, but we will have to watch temps closely for nighttime hours for any emerging threats of sloppy, wet snowflakes.
Cold air reasserts itself out of Canada behind that front and will push below normal temps in for black Friday and into the thanksgiving weekend. However, in the extended window, we see another minor front for Sunday the 27th that can bring up to .25” of liquid equivalent. Notice moisture totals are not over the top after this weekend, but with colder air in place, it will not take nearly as much moisture to create a set up where precipitation can fall…so this will be a definite pattern change.