Winds go southwest today and will start to bring in much warmer air through Friday. We are down to 3 days of above normal air left over the state before dramatic changes blow in. Sunshine will dominate today through early Friday, before the frontal affects start to build. Enjoy it.
Our cold front arrives late Friday evening and blasts through into early Saturday morning. We are going to leave our precipitation totals alone at this time yet again. We like .25”-.75” of rain potential, with coverage at 80% of the state. However, we would skew that mostly to the lower half of the range. Thunderstorms would be a feature that could bring the heavier rains back, but the front timing looks more and more to be mostly during nighttime hours, and that will keep thunderstorm action from being a big player, except maybe farther south. Winds will be substantial, though, and that will make the transition look more fierce. By sunrise Saturday, most precipitation will be over, or pushed well off to the east. The map above shows the extent of precipitation as of midnight Friday night.
Much colder air wraps in behind the front, coming in out of Canada. The winds will stay strong on the backside, further hammering home the change in weather pattern. This will likely lead to a fairly cloudy set up through the day Saturday over most of the state. Sun should reappear Sunday, but the cold is here to stay. Mostly normal to below normal temps with dry weather hold through Monday and Tuesday.
Our next system arrives just ahead of thanksgiving, and will, unfortunately, stick around through Thanksgiving Day. This will be a slow moving system, brining light rains over the two-day period. Cold air stays in place, but we still look for most of the precipitation to be liquid in nature. However, if moisture of any strengths holds through the overnight next Wednesday night into Thursday, there is a threat that some of it may manifest as sloppy wet snowflakes. WE don’t think it’s a big deal at this time, but we will watch it. As for totals, we like rains of .1”-.5” with coverage at 70%. And, like we said, we are making a change to our forecast to allow this moisture to hold through the thanksgiving holiday, meaning it may not be the nicest of days to come together. However, we do not anticipate travel issues locally.
Slightly drier for black Friday through at least the 28th. We still have no major warming with normal to below normal temps over the region. Models project another strong circulation coming across the country in the extended window closer to the 30th and the turn of the month. Right now, we think the development of a stronger system is a warranted and believable development, but the current track down into the TN valley looks completely wrong. If this system develops in the central plains, it is more likely to shoot northeast and become a player in our weather for the calendar flip. This system is too far out to really get too excited about just yet…but let’s just say we are going to watch it, and it has potential given the pattern change that we will see kick off this weekend