Warm and windy today, but a cold front sweeps through tonight. This will bring dramatic change to the state. However, our overall forecast is unchanged. Our front arrives late this afternoon or early evening. WE will see rains from tonight through early tomorrow morning. We continue to look for .25”-.75” rain totals with coverage at 100% of the state. We are also holding firm in our thoughts that most of the state will stay in the lower half of the range. The map shows a snapshot at midnight tonight.
Nasty winds stay in for the day tomorrow on the backside of the front. This will bring much colder air blasting in, and high temps for the weekend will be 20-30 degrees below what we see today or more. IT will not feel pretty, and we will see clouds for a good chunk of today. However, new precipitation is not likely over the state. Dry weather holds through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday as well. Sun will return, but cold air holds firm.
Our next system moves in for Wednesday ahead of thanksgiving. Our forecast is unchanged with rains through Wednesday, perhaps a few sloppy wet snow flakes mixing in overnight Wednesday night, and then just some spotty action through Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Rain totals are pegged at a few hundredths of an inch to about .4”, slightly lower than what we had been predicting, with an increase coverage range of 90%. WE think the holiday will be gray, gloomy and cold over most of the state.
Models have a lot of divergence toward the end of the 10 day window. The GFS model shows a significant front sweeping through for late black Friday in to Saturday the 27th, while the European model says nothing more than some clouds and a few sprinkles. Then, the GFS is later with the system for the extended window, pushing it back to the 3rd of December, while the European is much faster and still thinks we can see something around the turn of the month. Either way, the way the first system plays out will have a dramatic impact on the second system. For now, we are not getting to antsy to change our thoughts, so we will keep a trend toward little action late in the holiday weekend and better chances for a front around the turn of the month. But, we may have to tweak that outlook after staring at several model runs through this weekend. Stay tuned. One thing is for sure…after today, we are NOT going to be able to talk about how warm and mild it is or has been….bigtime pattern changes are coming.