Dry for a good chunk of today, but we will be making some transition to a cloudier picture as the day wears on. The clouds are in advance of a frontal boundary that sags through tonight into tomorrow, bringing some precipitation. Temps today ahead of the front will be warm, and we would equal or surpass yesterday’s highs if it were not for the clouds…that will take 3-5 degrees off temps in the northern half of the state vs. yesterday. The rains start near or after sunset in the northern third of the state, working southeast overnight and through sunrise tomorrow. By noon tomorrow, all action will be pushing east across OH. Rain totals still look to be mostly .25”-.6” with coverage at 80% of the state. The above map shows total rains through tomorrow midday.
Dry weather returns quickly behind the front. Thursday afternoon will begin the dry down, but sun is back in full play for Friday. We remain dry through the weekend and most of next week. In fact, our threats of rain later next week have dissipated dramatically, such that we now think it is conceivable to be dry right on through next Friday. Temps will be cool immediately behind the front Friday and then we will slowly build temps this weekend. Temps next week look to be mostly above normal once again.
In the extended window, we can see a weak upper level trough work in over the great lakes for late Saturday the 12th, lingering through the 13th into early the 14th. This will allow for clouds, light rains, and cooler temps, with rain totals mostly under .25”. However, as that trough moves out, we see a strong upper level high developing to the south that moves in over the eastern US, keeping the entire region dry through the balance of the 11-16-day window. This will put temps back above normal for the 14ththrough the 17th. Moisture may come up around the backside of the high for the 18th and beyond. But, still at this point, while we expect a sharp switch back to below normal temps in November, models seem reluctant to really zero in on a timeframe.