Continued cold this week as temps bounce slightly, but still only to near normal levels. We will be dry today and tomorrow, but see 3 systems in the next 10 days that will make for a very active pattern.
System #1 comes through Wednesday with moisture totals of a few hundredths to about .4”. Coverage will be around 80% of the state. Precipitation is mostly a daytime hours event, so most of the precipitation will be liquid, as temps range from 34-40 while most of the precipitation is falling. However, that does leave a door open for some sloppy wet snowflakes to mix in. However, most precipitation is done before we get to Thanksgiving Day. The above maps shows an approximation of moisture just after sunrise Wednesday morning.
Dry but cloudy and chilly for thanksgiving. However, we have our next system arriving for black Friday this week. This system also sweeps through during daytime hours, and will likely be able to trigger a few hundredths to half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation. Most of it will be rain, but we do have to keep an eye out for some wet snow mixing in before everything ends over northeastern parts of the state Friday night.
Dry this weekend into early next week with clouds trying to give way to sun. But, we think that clouds will be a fairly dominant part of the forecast through the weekend in the wake of the two strong fronts this week. System number three is on the way for next Tuesday, the 29th. That system looks like it could be very impressive, if it continues to develop the way current projections show. WE could see rain totals from .25”-.75” initially, and if a second wave of action develops, it could easily push rain totals over an inch to near 1.5”. This front sweeps through from west to east and would trigger 100% coverage over the state. Right now, the trend would be for liquid precipitation in the form of cold rain…iwht most of it being done by sunset on the 29th. Clouds and colder air would be in for the 30th into the 1st. In fact, we would look for much below normal temps for the region for the rest of next week, right on through at least the 4th.
In the extended window, we see nothing significant, outside of the cold air, until way out toward the end of the 11-16 day window. We are seeing signs of a strong low digging into the 4 corners region around the 6th, which would suggest a major winter storm hooking out of the SW US, hitting the Hoosier state around the 8th into the 9th. We are not going to get super worked up over this system yet…but with the active pattern emerging like we are seeing here as we finish November and move into December…it would fit that we see a strong storm develop again here at some point.