Clouds will be on the increase today as we gear up for our first of several waves of action over the next 10 days. The pattern remains just as active as we outlined yesterday, but the systems do seem to have lost a little intensity. Temps do look to hold in the near normal range through the rest of the month.
Our first of three systems arrives overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Temps will be very interesting to watch as this front arrives sometime after midnight. We think that most of the state will be above freezing, but a good chunk of the state will see temps in the 32-40 degree range while the precipitation arrives and moves through .That means a mix of rain and sloppy wet snowflakes will be the most likely type of precipitation. Snows will not be overly dramatic, but we are not likely seeing all rain either. As we move through the day tomorrow we will see precipitation go to mostly a cold rain, though, and end as such as well, most action should be done by or before sunset. Rain totals will be in the .25”-.75” range with coverage at 80% of the state. The map above shows cumulative rain total potential through tomorrow night. The heaviest areas on this model map are likely overdone, which is why our forecast widow is a bit lower.
A dry Thanksgiving Day is likely statewide, but it will likely be a gray day too, as clouds hold in many places. We do not expect an exceptional amount of warming behind tomorrow’s system, so normal to below normal temps should be expected for turkey day. But…there are no expectations of travel woes either.
Our next system is a minor low pressure passage for Black Friday. This system looks significantly less impressive this time around, and likely gives only a few hundredths of an inch up to .2” over about 30-40% of the state. That coverage will be skewed to the northern half. This may end up being more clouds than anything else, as the low may have trouble tapping into enough of a moisture source…but for now we are not comfortable with completely removing precipitation in a holiday weekend period. Better chances of sun emerge for Saturday and Sunday.
Next week, we start with our next system coming sooner. Strong winds develop late Sunday afternoon and will be followed by a strong cold front Sunday overnight into Monday. Rain totals can be from .2-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. The front is coming about 24 hours sooner now, and that may take a bit of the edge off the potential for heavier rains. The low lifts northeast and that likely clears us out sooner, bringing drier, but colder weather back already for Tuesday through the end of next week.
In the extended period, we still see potential for a strong, classic winter storm hooking out of the 4 corners area and coming through the state somewhere in the period from the 5th through the 7rh. This system would have moisture equivalents of half to 1 inch and could bring rain, snow and wind or a combination of the three to the state in that time frame. While this is not a solid forecast or timing, the threat is real, so stay tuned.