Rain starts off the week today with a strong system moving through the state. Moisture this morning through mid-afternoon will be fairly light, with only a few hundredths to perhaps a third of an inch likely, with coverage at 60%. However, as the cold front pushes in late this afternoon and evening, a second, stronger wave of energy comes up that front, and will deliver moderate to heavy rains across the state for the evening and overnight hours. That second wave can bring .25”-1” or better rains to the state, with the heaviest rains from I-70 southward. All told, rains today and tonight will total half to 1.5” (or maybe better close to the Ohio River) with coverage at a full 100% of the state. The heavy rains will be mostly in the south. The above map shows total precipitation potential through 6 am tomorrow morning.
Behind this system, we look cool and gray for most of tomorrow and Wednesday. In fact, we can’t rule out a few spits or sprinkles Wednesday as a weak upper level wave moves overhead…but there likely will not be enough actual moisture to get anything significant. We should see some sun poke through Thursday and Friday, but it may take until this weekend to get full sun when high pressure finally decides to settle in over the state. Still, we do not see significant precipitation from tomorrow into this weekend.
Our next front to watch arrives Sunday afternoon, bringing some light moisture with it. WE like rains from a few hundredths to at most .4” with coverage at 80% of the state. This wave is not exceptionally impressive, but will provide at least a little moisture. IT also is the only shot of rain for the period from the 4th through the 7th, as the strong system we had been watching in the central plains likely will pass by to the south, taking the better rains with it. So, we are keeping our forecast dry for the 5th through the end of the 10 day period.
In the extended window, models differ on what kind of pattern we see. The GFS continues to suggest a major storm moving across the country, but it is also the model that mishandled the system for early next week…so as usual, we cannot trust its looks right now. WE like a system around the 9th that brings up to half an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation, but nothing more than that. And the rest of the period will be dry. That is a conservative look at this time, but likely will be the way the pattern evolves. We need a much bigger cold air incursion and deeper upper level trough to get a stronger storm going at this point.