A nice, long dry spell kicks off today. In fact, this 10 day forecast is very easy. There is only 1 miniscule “threat” of rain, and we do not take that threat very seriously. That means, we are not changing our forecast. Here is how it works out.
Strong high pressure moves over the region today, and holds through Monday. WE transition from the leading edge of this high to the backside as we go through the weekend. Strong south winds come up the backside of the high. There is also another high coming in from the east. This “funneling” of air and converging wind pattern will trigger some scattered precipitation over the central and southern plains, along with the lower Mississippi valley. However, the moisture rains itself out before it can move in here. So, we think there can be clouds overnight Monday night into the first part of Tuesday, but no serious rain. IF we were forced to look for any precipitation at all, it would be spits and sprinkles very early Tuesday morning. But again, that’s only if you want to be mean and twist our arm. We really look for a dry transition.
Then, a second strong high moves in for the balance of Tuesday through next Sunday. That brings more sunshine, dry air, and pleasant weather to the state. Dry down should be excellent. Temps likely normal to above normal through the entire 10 day period.
In the extended window, we see a front sweeping into the region around the 14th that will be with a quarter of an inch or less for the most part with 70% coverage, and then perhaps a stronger front around the 18th. These fronts back up our thoughts that there will be a significant pattern change for the second half of the month with much colder air diving in. However, these fronts are not as strong as some of the later frames of past GFS models, where bigger rain/storm events were being shown. WE want to move conservatively, but feel that this warm, pleasant pattern cannot last long after the 15th. So, we are still looking for the pattern to get more active (and colder) as these fronts try to develop.