A mostly dry week is ahead of us as strong high pressure starts out the period today. This high will move quickly off to the east and will bring south winds in for tomorrow. Full sunshine is expected today, but we could see a few more clouds tomorrow, especially over the northern part of the state as that warm south flow interacts with the cooler air in the great lakes. However we do not expect any significant precipitation threat, even though we advise keeping an eye on the sky.
Dry weather holds through Wednesday, Thursday and the first part of Friday. By Friday midday, we see our next system building to the southwest, and it will push up into the state later in the day and at night. WE actually expect two waves of moisture to come through the state this weekend, the first coming Friday night into Saturday, and the second through the day Sunday. These waves will bring a combined rain total of .5” to 1” with coverage at 80% or better. The rains Friday likely wait until mid to late afternoon, meaning we will be able to see some field work that day. The rains will start in south and southwest IN, and build northeast form there. This event will bring a halt to harvest work across the state. Most of the state will be in the lower part of the range, and 1 inch rain totals will only be seen in about 10-20% of the state. The map above shows cumulative rain totals for the entire system from Friday through midnight Sunday night.
Behind the system, we dry down again for Monday, with cooler air in for a day or so. But, winds turn quickly south for the rest of next week, and we see much warmer air arrive. The dry spell will likely last through the end of next week, with our next rain system potentially waiting until closer to the end of the month for its arrival. We see a strong upper level ridge dominating the second half of October. One area to watch next week will be late Wednesday night into Thursday…as one model shows some moisture in MO and IL trying to come in from the south and west…but most models have the moisture dissipating and becoming a non-event for Indiana. If we do in fact miss that system, it will likely be sometime after the 25th before we see our next significant rain event developing.
Temps will spend most of the next 2-3 weeks above normal. Threats of frost will be minimal through the period…with only one or two forays into the upper 30s likely.