Rain moves east today and we should see a fairly quick move back to sunny skies. However, cooler air is in behind the front, and temps today will be significantly cooler than yesterday and the past few days actually. We look for highs today to be a good 10-15 degrees cooler on daytime highs, and tonight, the coolest temps of the season should move in tonight. WE still look for a few upper 30s over the northern third of the state. But…that cool air will be a 24-hour period only, with highs bouncing back quickly to finish the week and for the weekend.
The next front to push into the state still is on track to move in late Saturday night through Sunday. However, our concern about some models “overplaying” this system looks valid…as most still look to bring only a few hundredths to a few tenths in over the state, and most of them keep it only over the northern third of the state. WE will leave our forecast alone at this time, with rain totals of .05”-.25” and scale our coverage back to 50% at best. We think southern interests really do not have anything to fear out of the weekend system.
Dry Monday through the first half of Wednesday. We will keep a front/trough coming through at midweek with some rain. That front may try and strengthen if we see no moisture/energy robbing system this weekend. So, for now, we will keep .1”-.5” rain totals form the front Wednesday mid to late afternoon through Wednesday night, with coverage at 60% of the state. Dry then for the rest of next week Thursday and Friday.
Model discrepancies abound as we kick off the extended period. The GFS model is still talking up a significant front for the 22nd, but the European is not as strong. We think the front is there, but that the Euro is pushing the timing back a bit. Therefore, we keep our forecast in play with some rains of .25”-1” working in. We still think the heaviest rains may be skewed over the southern half of the state. The rest of the extended period continues to look dry, with an upper level ridge dominating into the end of the month.
Nothing has changed on the potential tropical event in the gulf either for the end of the month. There are not a lot of models jumping on the system, but the pattern remains ripe for development there in this time frame. For now, stay tuned, our thoughts have not changed.