Home Weather Ryan Martin’s Indiana Ag Forecast for October 18, 2016

Ryan Martin’s Indiana Ag Forecast for October 18, 2016

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image002Another dry, windy and very warm day today. Records fell in parts of the state yesterday as high temps moved into the upper 80s. We can easily see a duplicate day today, as strong southwest winds race across the state. However, big changes in the pattern will begin as we work through tomorrow, and we have some significant rains that roll through tomorrow night and Thursday.

Clouds work in slowly overnight tonight through midday tomorrow, but the big precipitation push will wait to develop until later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Rain and thunderstorms will fire off ahead of sunset, and then the heavier rains hold through the overnight and a good chunk of Thursday. We like rain totals from .25”-1.5” with coverage at nearly 80% of the state. The heaviest rains will be in central and southern Indiana, but we expect more than two thirds of the state to actually be in the half to 1-inch part of the range. This will be a soaking rain. The map above shows total precipitation tomorrow through Thursday night.

Cooler air comes in behind the system for the finish of the week and weekend. However, temps still look to be normal to above normal for the period. Drier air will be in with the coolness as well, but dry down may not be as aggressive, with temps a good 20 degrees cooler than what we saw yesterday and are seeing today. Clouds may also be somewhat pesky for the Friday Saturday time frame as well, since we are going to force the atmosphere to hold a lot of residual moisture with a lot less heat to hold it. In fact…while we are not going to insert any good threat of moisture into our early Saturday forecast…we also would not be surprised to see some spits and sprinkles in there, especially over northern Indiana.

Mostly dry for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with more sunshine trying to move in. Southwest winds will pump temps up for the period as well. This will play into the development of a potentially massive storm complex for Wednesday-Thursday-Friday of next week. A strong low will move out of the central plains and across the MO valley. A warm front likely triggers scattered showers for Wednesday the 26th, mostly over the northern third of the state. Those totals will be a quarter of an inch or less with coverage at 30%. The low crosses southern Indiana overnight Wednesday night through next Thursday. This will bring rains of half to 2 inches to 100% of the state. This will be a windy, soaking system that will even feature a few thunderstorms. The low finally tracks off to the northeast Friday the 28th, but strong north winds come in behind, and will take temps down. This will be our first real push of cold air in over the region, and it would not be surprising to see some below normal daytime highs. However, overnight lows may not reach frost levels…with clouds keeping some warmth trapped at the surface in the wake of the storm complex.

In the extended window, we switch back to an upper level ridge pattern for the 30th through the 2nd. We will have another massive storm complex coming out of the plains into the stat for the 3rd and 4th that can bring another half to 2 inches of rain, if it develops as we see at the moment. Basically, we are looking at the remaining harvest getting a little more difficult through the next few weeks, with bigger, stronger systems, and shorter dry down periods in-between. If you have acreage left to go….be ready to push it – you may have to be a little more aggressive on attacking harvest windows.