Clouds thicken and build today, but we still think the biggest threat of rain still holds off until tonight and tomorrow. We have no reason to change our moisture outlook at this time, and are locked into our .25”-1.5” range. The rains will be the heaviest at the outset in southern and central Indiana, and the better rains move north overnight through tomorrow. Coverage will be 80% of the state. The most likely areas to get missed will be in NW Indiana. The above map suggests rain totals from this morning through tomorrow evening.
Rains will be exiting the state by tomorrow evening, and then we settle in for a mostly dry period for Friday through next Tuesday. We likely see some clouds holding over parts of the state Friday into Saturday, but they moisture content here may not be as bad as we had initially feared, and that is why we are not taking the step of adding a few showers into the forecast for that period. In fact, we think we should see fairly decent dry down potential for the 5-day period, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Temps will be cooler, but still near normal to start, and then above normal for Sunday through next Tuesday.
The next frontal boundary we are watching continues to track for arrival next Wednesday. Latest models suggest a little later in the day, but we are not really willing to split those hairs right now. Rain totals this go-round do not look to be quite as impressive, but we will leave our precipitation ranges alone, looking for half to 2 inches, but extending the timeline to include Friday. In fact, the best rains from the event may be Thursday and Friday with Wednesday acting more as a transition day. Still, it means we expect some slowdowns in harvest again later next week.
Cooler again behind that front, with temps back closer to normal to kick off the weekend of the 29th-30th. Still, though, no major cold air outbreak is expected, as flow patterns at the end of the 10-day period still look zonal to even ridge based. In the extended period, we are dry to start, and still feel there can be another strong event toward the middle of the 11-16-day window. However, models are flip flopping on moisture potential, and we will just stay the course for now, keeping mention of the potential for some precipitation around the 3rd into the 4th.