Rain continues today, and totals will be somewhat substantial before moisture moves away tonight. Rains likely will not overly heavy at any given time, but will be persistent through a good part of the day. We will keep rain totals for this event (in its entirety…including action from yesterday/last night) at .25”-1.5”. NW Indiana has the best chance of getting missed, and the central part of the state is where the biggest rain totals likely will be found. The rains don’t completely leave the state until overnight, but we should see some significant diminishing of rains by later this afternoon. The above map shows rain totals from last night through 6 pm this evening.
Clouds and residual moisture do hold into tomorrow morning, but additional new rains are not likely. It will just take a little time to clear the skies out. By afternoon, we should see sunshine with increasing regularity. That will lead to a fairly dry period for the balance of tomorrow through the weekend and through Wednesday of next week. That means 5 days of dry, rain free weather is on tap for the region, which will be needed in the wake of this event. Cooler temps mean we don’t see as rapid of dry down, but we still should see good evaporation through the period and have some fields ready for harvest return by late weekend or early in the week. Of course, areas that see over an inch will likely need at least 3, perhaps days with a maxed out evaporation rate before they would be suitable.
The next system to watch seems to want to delay just a bit. Scattered showers move in for next Thursday, but will only amount to .25” totals or less with 60% coverage. However, a second wave of the system for next Friday will bring better rain chances, and some threats of isolated thunderstorms. This means we will leave our precipitation range intact for the 2-day period at .5”-2”, although at this point we will be the first to admit that 2” is probably overdone. But, until we can be sure that thunderstorms do not become a wide ranging threat, we will keep a higher range, just to drive home the point that there can be harvest delays again late next week. Temps, though, rise ahead of the system and will stay normal to above normal through the turn of the month.
In the extended period, we still like a frontal complex moving into the region around the 3rd, but are a little more skeptical on its strength. If an upper level ridge does hold over the state and most of the country into early November, and this front works in without any significant upper level trough to support it (as is suspected at this time), can we really see bigger rains? At this point, we will scale bac k our thoughts on the early November system to .25”-1”, and put coverage at 60%. This allows for the front to fall apart to our west, and perhaps a bigger system can develop out of those remains closer to the following weekend. Time will tell. But for now, we are less concerned about a big event so soon in November.
In a look ahead…we think this pattern of well above normal temps may be marked for death as we move into mid-November. Temps may be poised to move to below normal levels quickly before the thanksgiving holidays get much though from us. Its early…but the extended growing season is likely to come to an end quickly. More on this in upcoming forecast write-ups.