Dry today as south winds continue to blow ahead of our next little disturbance. WE should see slightly warmer temps today over yesterday and good dry down. Moisture begins to work into the northern part of the state overnight tonight, and will linger tomorrow morning over the northern quarter. Through the day, that action will slowly sag south through the state, leading to rain fall totals of .25” to .5” with coverage at 70%. While this moisture is a little faster on its trek through the state, the changes to the pattern do bring a drier look to the days following this system’s passage. The map is one model’s snapshot of the rain set up tomorrow late afternoon and evening. We think this solution is a little slow.
High pressure works into the state for Thursday afternoon, and will bring dry air back. The arrival of this high will be gradual, and clouds likely will dominate the early to middle part of Thursday. This will keep good dry down weather at bay at least initially. But, as the high centers over the state Friday and leaves Saturday, we think the dry pattern will be able to hold, and the next system tracking across the country should pass by to the north, mostly over the great lakes this weekend. However, we do still harbor some concerns for a change in this pattern for Sunday, and there will be a decent amount of clouds around over the northern half of the state for Sunday too…so we will continue to watch that.
No matter the outcome of Sunday, we still see a nice dry window early next week as well. We look for dry, sunny weather for Monday through Thursday of next week with temps near normal. This will be a good dry down period. WE still have some concern about colder air coming, and will continue to point to a potential of frost in around the turn of the month. But, the temps are slightly warmer on these latest model runs and that may keep the threat of bigger frost at bay just a bit longer. The frost forecast is like walking a tightrope at this time, and we expect that rope to snap soon…we just hope to be closer to an end when it happens.
In the extended window, we still look for a significant circulation to move through around the 6th of November. This low has been pretty steady on the charts to this point, and will likely have a .25”-1” target for rains. Coverage will be around 80%. This system does look to bring in our first good upper level trough of the season, though, and could swing the temperature pattern to below normal for the last few days of the 11-16-day window. There is plenty of time for the pattern to modify, but change is on our minds at this point, and our run of warmer than normal temps likely is on borrowed time.