Sunshine returns today, with high pressure exiting the state to the east. This will bring south winds back in play, and warmer weather returns. This dry pattern will be with us over most of the state right on into midweek next week. Sun will be a dominant player and tomorrow, then again Monday through Wednesday.
A slight hiccup could develop Sunday. We have a strong area of low pressure passing by to the north over the great lakes. This low will drag a front through southern lower Michigan, and it will get close to the MI-IN line. We are going to put more clouds in for Sunday, especially over the northern quarter to third of the state. However, we remain unmoved in our precipitation outlook: we think that Sunday will be mostly dry. Models seem bent on a flip flop pattern here as of late – one run will be dry, and then the run 12 hours later pushes slightly better moisture a little farther south. So…models are not even really convinced there is anything significant here. And our first read a few days back was for drier air. AT this point, there is nothing standing out here that says definitively “change that forecast.” Keep in mind this is only a discussion for the northernmost part of the state. Central and southern Indiana will be dry and warming.
We are making a change in the arrival time of our next front for next week, though. We like showers working into the state on Thursday. Rain totals are not exceptional. WE look for .05”-.3” rain totals over about 60% of the state. The front sweeps through fairly quickly, and the pattern goes back to net drying by Friday. The dry window then extends through next weekend, although colder air is likely to push into the region behind the front. The colder air will come in with Canadian high pressure that holds through the 6th.
In the extended window, the next big system is tracking farther north now, fir the 8th. Its current projected track would keep it mostly out of the state, but we have concern about a cold front out of the low sweeping through for the 8th into the 9th, and will continue to monitor that closely. If that system is unable trigger precipitation, our next strong frontal prospect arrives overnight the 10th into the 11th, with rain totals of .25”-.5” and coverage at 70%.The map above is a snapshot of overnight Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Temps will be rather volatile starting late next week. Each front allows for colder Canadian air to settle in. The extended period in general looks to have a significant upper level trough moving through that will offer an easier road for cold air to push down into Indiana. We still have prospects for some good frost late next week and next weekend.