Dry weather in again today, as we continue to be well in front of a cooler air mass that will transition in for the weekend. Rains yesterday were a little more surprising in their footprint over the northern quarter of the state, but in general, rain was not a big story. Even up north, many areas that saw rain only saw it for 30 minutes, and then still finished the day with sun and a breeze. Today temps will be well above normal, pushing toward the lower 80s again and we expect good dry down. The dry weather continues tomorrow. A weak trough comes through late tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning, but we do not think there will be any serious moisture with it. Instead, just look for a wind shift to the west and northwest, bringing in the cooler air for the weekend.
While we are dry for the weekend, we do see temps coming back to normal, from the above normal levels we have seen over the past few days. Sunshine should dominate right on into early next week. In fact, we think most of the state will be dry through the entirety of next week. However, we are still watching a weak little trough sagging into the northern part of the state Tuesday into Wednesday. This trough is part of a low that moves through the great lakes and southern Canada, and most of the moisture stays up there. But, we are not going to give an all clear signal everywhere just yet, even though we feel that is the most likely outcome. The norther tier counties still could conceivably see a spit or sprinkle in there on Tuesday. The rest of the state will be dry.
Our next front of any significance waits until late in the 10 day period. This cold front sweeps through Friday the 14th into Saturday the 15th. Rains will hit around 90% of the state with rain totals of .25”-.75”. This will be a wave of moisture that will likely slow harvest a little bit, but between now and then, we should make such good progress that delays may not be spoken to poorly of. Still, behind that front, in the extended period, an upper level ridge is likely through the 20th, and we should see mostly dry weather return, and a good harvest window along with it. The front above is a snapshot of potential moisture Friday evening.
The much above normal temps in the lower and middle 80s will only last a couple more days. A return to normal temps for this weekend is likely, and then the above normal air in over the rest of the 16 day period will not be as dramatic as our current set up. Still, we see mostly reasonable humidity values, so with any breeze, we should see excellent dry down each day.