A cold front will finally work through the state today, passing through later this afternoon and into tonight. This front does not look all that impressive, but given the fact that we have been able to see scattered showers and thunderstorms fire off with a little more coverage the past two days over parts of the state, we just can’t rule out some action as the front moves through. Any scattered showers or thundershowers that develop will be minor, and we expect less than .25”. Coverage will be less than 40%. In general, we still like a mostly dry frontal passage…it’s just the instability of the past few days makes us not want to guarantee a completely dry period, especially with harvest ramping up. The map above shows rain potential around 6 this evening.
Dry for the weekend through most of next week. A weak trough moves through the northern part of the state Tuesday into Wednesday, but looks to have less available moisture with it, so at this point we are going to call for only clouds, and no serious precipitation. The next good front works into the region for Friday, with .25”-.5” rain potential and 70% coverage. The map shows a snapshot of rain potential next Friday evening. There may be a few scattered showers ahead of that on Thursday if we get a well formed warm front to come in ahead…but odds do not look spectacular. WE follow that front up with a much more substantial circulation in for the end of next weekend, for Sunday into Monday. That system brings .25”-1.5” rain totals with showers and potentially heavy thunderstorms. Coverage should be around 70%. That period from Friday through the weekend likely will lead to some larger scale harvest delays.
In the extended period, we see a nice upper level ridge back in play for the 18th through the 22nd, bringing dry weather back to the forefront. Another front is likely toward the end of the 15 day window with half inch rain potential over 70% of the state.
Temps cool off after today as high pressure moves in. However, temps only revert back to normal for the weekend and then will be slightly above normal again for a good chunk of next week while we move through the dry period. With the arrival of our next front late next week, we expect a temp spike ahead, followed by a move to near normal temps to finish next weekend. The extended period features nearly normal temps.