No change in the short term forecast, but we are making a few tweaks this morning to our weather outlook for next week. Today, southwest winds will help temps climb nicely. We see the entire state above freezing and most of the state well above normal. Tomorrow, temps should do a little better than today, but still, we fall short of last week’s thaw levels. By Sunday, snow will be gone in most areas.
We still paint a pretty cloudy picture for Sunday, as scattered light moisture overspreads the state. Spits, sprinkles, and drizzle may amount to a few hundredths to .1” over 70% of the state. This will be enough to make for a bit of a damp feel and to keep us from feeling warmer than Saturday. Better rains develop overnight Sunday night through most of the day Monday. We like rain totals of .25”-.75” with 90% coverage. These rains have been well advertised, and we are not moving away from our prior forecast here. Keep the umbrella handy. The map above shows rain totals through Monday night.
As cold air pushes into the state behind the frontal boundary, we think there will be a good deal of lake effect cloudiness over the northern half of the state for Tuesday. In addition, we won’t rule out some minor snows from I-70 northward, although accumulations of a coating to an inch will be limited to areas north of US 24 for the most part. Still, this addition of snow to this magnitude is a change to our view of this system. While temps fall off for the Tuesday-Thursday period, they will not be super cold, just getting back to normal and slightly below normal levels. However, after the warm-up of the next 3 days, it will still be a dramatic change.
Late next week is where the bulk of our forecast changes come this morning. South winds Thursday help temps start to moderate again but also signal a fairly strong front sitting off to our west. That front shows up overnight Thursday night into Friday midday with rains from .25”-.5” over about 80% of the state. Temps will be warm enough to produce all liquid precipitation, even though the bulk of it comes in an overnight and early morning period. However, this is just the first wave of several to come. Friday night through Saturday we see a second wave bringing half to 1” spots of rain to all of the state. This moisture comes in with mild temps still in place and should be gone by the time cold air comes in overnight Saturday night. However, we now see a third wave, complete with another low-pressure center moving over the region for the 28th, after the cold air has pushed into most of the state. This can bring several inches of snow for the 28th, and we may see another push of moisture out of the northwest into the 29th. So the changes are not so much with the timing…we have been talking about a system around the 28th for a while. But, the changes are increases in the overall moisture, and a spreading of the moisture over more days, making this a system that could end up bringing moisture equivalents up to 2 inches combined through the 4 day period if development continues at this pace. The cold air coming in behind the system for the last few days of January will likely spawn a clipper for near the February 1st. That clipper still looks to be followed by a cold Canadian high to start off February.
Enjoy the next few days, and keep the umbrella nearby through the end of next week. Then, get ready to swap it out for a snow shovel.