An interesting pattern is developing for the coming 10 days. The extended 11-16 day period features a good deal of uncertainty too. There looks to be a few instances of “whipsaw” like weather, particularly as it relates to temperatures, between now and the end of the month.
Today we remain cold. Likely the coldest temps of this blast came in overnight last night, but we will be slow to rebound today. This is mostly due to a strong north wind component today, which can trigger some lake effect snows in NW and north central Indiana, and some lake enhanced clouds in other areas. However, the rest of the state should turn out at least partly sunny. Temps will be below normal.
South winds develop overnight tonight and really ramp up through the day tomorrow. This will quickly drive temps higher, and tomorrow we can actually be a bit above normal for this time of year – mid 30s in northern Indiana, and 40s south. This strong south flow will be in advance of or next system, which begins to nose in tomorrow night.
Rain arrives after sunset tomorrow night and continues through the overnight, ending Wednesday midday as some light snow. Yes, we are talking rain tomorrow night. However, temps will not be that warm…so we continue to have some concern about wet snow flakes mixing in, at least over far northern Indiana. But we will take another look at the profile tomorrow morning. For now, we project .25”-.75” of rain, and then a coating to an inch of snow before everything ends on Wednesday. The map above shows total liquid equivalent potential for the event through early Wednesday afternoon. The balance of Wednesday will be cloudy to partly sunny, and we can’t rule out the development of lake effect snow overnight Wednesday night into Thursday in northern Indiana. Strong north winds develop through the day Thursday, which will keep lake effect snow potential top of mind over the northern third of the state, but just clouds and occasional sun elsewhere. Cold air settles in for Friday.
This coming weekend will feature snow from Friday night through Saturday, giving a coating to 2 inches over about 60% of the state. The best snow potential will be from I-70 northward, although we wont rule it out anywhere. Then we turn partly sunny for next Sunday, and another push of cold air blasts in.
A strong snow storm arrives Monday midday and brings snow from I-70 northward through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Overnight and through Tuesday the snow settles in over southern parts of the state. All told this looks like at least a 1-3 inch event, maybe more, with coverage at 90% of the state. Scattered light snow and flurry action lingers into next Wednesday with lower coverage, and cold air stays.
For the extended period, data is all over the place. We believe cold air is here to stay and will hold right on through February. However, some models are throwing a significant warm up in for the first weekend in February, with temps way above normal again. For now, we are looking for a dry Thursday (31st), and then snow for Friday, February 1st, with some minor accumulations. Then we will look for clouds and the potential for another system around the 2nd and 3rd, before drying down for the start of the first full week in February. However, our confidence is low in this extended period pattern at this time.