Today should be the coldest day of the week over most of the state. We saw cold air start to blast in behind a second cold front yesterday, and today, Canadian high-pressure drifts by to our north and east. This will keep temps mostly below freezing over 70% of the state, but down south we can see a slightly better outlook. We also think that clouds will give way to more sun through the day today.
Southwest winds start to develop tomorrow and that will allow temps to climb just a bit. We do not expect huge warming, but tomorrow will be warmer than today. The winds pick up in intensity going into Friday, and that will be where we see the biggest temperatures jump. Friday temps will be well above normal statewide.
Clouds, spits, and sprinkles move into southwest Indiana overnight Friday night, but we think the better-organized precipitation holds off until Saturday midday. Rains move across Indiana then through Saturday afternoon and evening and will be off to the east and south by 9-10 pm. Rain totals still look to be from .25”-1”, with the lower end of the range up north, and the upper end of the range in southern Indiana. The map above shows rain totals through Saturday evening. The moisture looks to be more compact, and will not be drawn out. We see most of the state dry by midnight Saturday night, and no serious precipitation on Sunday. However, cold air will move over the state Sunday, as Canadian high-pressure returns and temps go below normal.
North and northwest winds may create a bit of lake effect snow in northern Indiana on Monday, but generally, most of the state is dry. We will be watching for those lake snow accumulations in Laporte and St. Joe counties, along with some other fringe areas. Temps Monday remain below normal.
Southwest winds are back for Tuesday night through Wednesday, making another high on our temperature roller coaster. We expect above normal temps for Wednesday and Thursday as we flip the calendar. However, those southwest winds at midweek may be running from 15-30 mph, meaning wind chills will be in play and it will not be an exceptionally nice setup. Still, the 40s and 50s can move in under the right circumstances.
Moisture returns for late Thursday afternoon, February 1. However, cold air also comes racing back in as well. This could set up for a very interesting storm complex for overnight Thursday night into Friday the 2nd. We had been watching a significant event for late the 3rd into the 4th, and that looks to come a little quicker now. The European model has nearly all the moisture coming with the cold air, meaning we would be looking at epic snows. However, other models are not so sure as of yet. An all snow set up looks tantalizing but also does not look right to us this morning. We think we will see rain to start, and then a changeover to snow as cold air arrives. But, either way, the liquid available to this system would be upwards of 1 inch, meaning, whatever happens, liquid equivalent precipitation will be significant. This is a system to watch, and we will be quick to update our thoughts as we move forward.
The extended period has a minor clipper for the 4th into the 5th and another clipper around the 8th. Cold air will be in for the entire area as we start off February, and that means these clippers will likely bring additional light snow.