No change in the forecast this morning. Another cold day is in store, and temps remain below normal through the balance of the week. Below zero temps are in over parts of the state this morning, and we can see subzero temps again tomorrow and even Friday morning, although the most severe cold is behind us. Sunshine will be a major player though this period, but we can’t rule out lake effect snows today and tomorrow in the typical lake effect zones: Laporte, St. Joe, Elkhart, northern Marshall and northern Kosciusko counties. Generally, clouds from the lake action will not come any farther south than US 30, and accumulating snows should stay limited more to areas north of US 6. Near the Michigan line, we can see several inches today through tomorrow.
South winds remain on track to develop Saturday night ahead of our next front and storm system. These winds will help moderate temperatures some for Saturday and Sunday, but we stay mostly below freezing through the period. Precipitation begins to push into western and southwestern parts of the state Sunday afternoon and evening. With the cold air in place, we still think precipitation will start as snow. But, as strong south winds continue to come up ahead of the actual cold front, precipitation will attempt to mix with and change over to rain in southern Indiana as we head into early Monday morning. The current track of the storm complex is a bit farther south and east this morning, which will limit any mixing or changeover somewhat. Farther north and west, the track signals mostly snow, but amounts are not as impressive. We still want to keep an eye out for a wintry mix. Eventually, strong north winds will return and bring back arctic air behind the front late Monday overnight and into early Tuesday. Strong winds mean blowing snow is still the main concern for early Tuesday. As we said yesterday, what happens Sunday night through Monday depends entirely on the track of the system. We saw the track shift a bit this morning, but we think it is not done yet. There still is copious amounts of moisture with this system, and we are holding our thoughts on liquid equivalent precipitation totals to the half to 1” range. The heaviest is south. . The map above shows updated liquid equivalent precipitation totals over the entire potential duration of the event. We continue to watch this closely.
Behind the system, we have another bitter cold week on the way then next week. Temps pull back to below normal levels, and may try and rival this week, although we think next week may end up being just slightly better. A new wrinkle comes in right at the end of the 10 day window, with a chance of snow sagging in with a front from the northwest. This would bring accumulating snow for next Friday midday on through the overnight over about 60% of the state.
For the extended forecast period, we continue to watch a strong front developing late on the 13th, into the 14th. This system looks similar in make-up to what we expect this coming Sunday night into Monday, which means we are expecting a very active first half of January. The mid-month system will likely have more snow, as cold air tightens its grip on the region.