Dry today tomorrow and Saturday. The moisture and circulation to our north in Michigan for Saturday does not look as robust and therefore we think we can keep moisture north of the entire state, rather than having to dodge some showers in the northern quarter. Temps will be ramping up through the period and will be well above normal to start off the weekend.
Scattered showers remain on course to arrive here at some point Sunday, mostly late afternoon into the evening. Then, we see showers continue through Monday, ending before sunrise Tuesday. We are leaving rain totals alone right now at .1”-.7”. However, there are a few clues that point toward the better potential for thunderstorms. Through the Monday and Monday night part of the event. If those were to materialize, that could push the upper end of the range over an inch, and the lower end of the range over a quarter inch. Given how dry we are right now, and how much we need the rain, we are going to hold off on any kind of precipitation forecast change for another 24 hours. Our concern is that the atmosphere is so dry, that the heavier moisture may have a more difficult time developing. Still, we need the rain and are hopeful we can get closer to an inch. Rains that we are calling for currently will only bring relief for 2 days or so. The map above shows rain totals combined through early Tuesday morning.
Dry weather for the rest of the week, from Tuesday afternoon through the weekend. Models still have some disagreement for the Wednesday afternoon-Thursday time frame, with the Euro still wet but no other model coming along for the ride. In fact, if anything, we see less moisture on the latest 2 euro runs than we had previously, so we are leaving our dry thoughts intact.
For the extended period, we have dry weather continues through the 23rd. Then we have a front for the 24th with half to 1-inch potential, followed by a return to dry weather for the 25th through at least the 27th. As we mentioned yesterday, if this forecast verifies, that means we have exactly 2 chances of significant moisture between now and the 27th. We need more than that.
Temperatures will be above normal through a majority of the next 10 days, to the tune of 2-5 degrees higher than regular daytime highs.