Changes are in the forecast this morning as our pattern is looking wetter. Rains today are as we expected, but dryness for the rest of the week is out, and scattered showers are in. This makes the forecast one that benefits most crop growth and development, as long as it verifies. However, we are seeing some pretty good model agreement on the pattern for the remainder of this week and the weekend. We do not see models diverge until next week. A map of 10-day rain potential is below, and discussion of our forecast changes follows.
Today we have scattered showers and even a rumble of thunder over Indiana, but most of the action is skewed toward central and southern Indiana. Northern Indiana’s action was mostly overnight into early this morning, and while we won’t rule out a lingering shower or two in the north, almost everything today is farther south. Tomorrow looks nearly identical in that arena, with scattered showers mostly over central and southern Indiana. Two-day totals will be from .1”-.6” with coverage at 60%.
On Wednesday, we flip the script just a bit, with a mostly sunny set up for central and southern Indiana, while areas from US 24 northward see a few scattered showers. Rain totals are not that impressive, only up to .25”, and we expect no better than about 50% coverage over the northern third. For Thursday, we will be mostly sunny over most of the state through the daytime hours, but a chance of showers redevelops from US 24 northward in the evening and overnight hours. Rains will have 30% coverage north of US 24 this time, with rain totals up to .4”.
Friday, we see rains statewide with a relatively strong cold front sweeping through. Rain totals will be somewhat disappointing though, out of such as strong front, with .1”-.5” over 80% of the state
Our weekend looks dry, with full sunshine for Saturday and Sunday! Then on Monday, we are back to the active moisture pattern, with showers form I-70 south. However, we keep sunshine around in the north. Rain totals south of 70 will be .1”-.5” with coverage at 60%. Tuesday should be sunny in all areas, and then Wednesday we have action pushing back into southern Indiana, this time with bigger thunderstorm potential. Wednesday, we expect .25”-1” rains over 70% of the region south of I-70, while we again see most of northern Indiana missing out on that action.
For the extended period. We will see the showers expand to statewide coverage for Thursday, the 12th, bringing .25”-.75” to 75% of Indiana. Then we go dry for next Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We finish the 11-16 day forecast period with a nice, slow-moving frontal complex sagging across the region for the 16th and 17th, allowing for an additional .25”-.75” of moisture with 90% coverage.
Temperatures will continue on a bit of a roller coaster. Rains overnight and today will pull temps back to near and slightly above normal levels today and tomorrow. We will be hot again Wednesday, Thursday and Friday morning, on strong south flow and some sunshine in the area. Temps will be well above normal. Then the front that sweeps through Friday brings significantly cooler air in for Friday evening through the weekend. Temps for that period will be below normal. Then we spend most of next week near normal. After the heat of this past weekend, this is also a good forecast outlook on temps.