Today we see a weak trough drag into the state, coming out of a disturbance moving across the great lakes. This front is not all that impressive, but it is speeding up just a bit, and will bring rain into northern Indiana this afternoon into this evening. Now, with our increase in speed, it will be leaving sooner as well, but we still see some action from I-70 northward through the afternoon and evening. Right now we think not much more than a sprinkle, but in east central Indiana, we can see a few hundredths to a tenth or two before the late afternoon period is over. South of I-70, we see nothing today, just some on and off clouds.
As the front arrives sooner, it exits sooner, leading to a dry Friday, beginning to end. We tack on a dry weekend too, for Saturday and Sunday. South winds will begin to develop over the weekend, and that will take temps back to near normal, but we do not expect a major push to above normal temperatures levels anytime soon.
Rains come up into the state from the south and west once we get past midnight Sunday night. On and off rain will be around for Monday and Tuesday, although coverage is not impressive and rain totals are a little lower this morning. A refiring of thunderstorms may happen overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday over Ohio, and we have to watch for that action to try and build west into eastern Indiana. However, at this point, it looks like the best rains and the longer lasting moisture will stay over Ohio. We like combined rain totals for the period to be around half to 1.5” over 60% of the state, and the remaining areas will see some rain, just likely a little short of the lower end of the range. We still think that overall this is not as impressive of a system as we saw back at the start of the week.
The rest of the week next week stays dry in our forecast. The extended period though looks wetter, with rain chances lingering over Indiana every day of the 11-16 day forecast period. In addition, the rains ramp up in intensity toward the end of the extended window. If this comes together as we see it right now, we should have good rains through early august. However, we are noticing that the trends over the past few days have been to take rains out of the farther out events. Next week, for example, has less coverage overall, even though we are having to extend the chances of rain farther out.