The setup today is basically north vs. south. A strong batch of showers and thunderstorms moved out of the central plains into Missouri yesterday. This action has continued to move east and will be tracking across the state today. The best threat of moisture will likely be in southern Indiana, but we will allow some scattered action into our forecast north as well. Right now, rain totals look to be from .1”-.5” during daylight hours with coverage at 70% of the state.
Our next front remains on track to arrive Saturday night and exit late morning Sunday. We expect decent rain overnight, and then action tapering off Sunday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to .5” over roughly 60% of the state. The best chances will be over northern and northeast Indiana, but we will not try to get too cute and leave anyone completely out.
We are dry for, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and fieldwork conditions. The dry weather likely continues for Thursday and Friday as well, as temps climb. However, we can’t rule out a few hit and miss showers, primarily over northern Indiana, next Thursday morning and midday. Next weekend will be interesting. Models still want to bring in a front for Saturday but have been struggling to come up with a good moisture source for the system. Right now, we will keep the door open to some scattered shower and thunderstorm action, but we want to see better moisture flow up from the south before we get too excited.
For the extended period, we are going to go a little drier. The flow pattern is more west, which does not allow for good moisture support off the Gulf during the period. However, we still can see good heat-based pop-up action from time to time. The GFS model is trying to bring another tropical system up to the western FL coast around days 13-15, but this model overplays these kinds of features. No other models are even giving hints of this kind of set up. It bears watching, but the American model does really ramp up moisture around mid-month as the remains move into the eastern corn belt. We think this has a very low chance of happening, and we are staying drier this morning.