Once again, we have no significant changes to our forecast this morning as the switch to a wetter pattern seems pretty locked in. Showers moved into the state last night and will continue to move through the state today. Moisture is not all that impressive, and there will be some holes in coverage. We think that up to 70% of the state can see rains up to half an inch today, but the high end of the range will be very limited. Half inch totals will be only near the Michigan line, while .2”-.4” rains can be seen north of US 24. The remaining areas that see rain will only be in the few hundredths to a tenth or two range through the day today. We will be cool, however, with temps well below normal. Tomorrow turns out mostly sunny and we are able to finish the work week on a dry note.
Moisture returns to the area for Saturday, and we have that as the beginning of a very wet stretch of weather. We have rain in the forecast every day from Saturday through next Friday, which is a 2 day extension on the back end of the forecast window than what we were looking at 24 hours ago. The only chance we have at potentially missing a bit of rain will be next Tuesday, when the northern two thirds to three quarters of the state may be able to get by precipitation free. Otherwise, it’s looking pretty wet. Like we have the past couple of days, we will update the day by day look at things. On Saturday, we have scattered showers producing a few hundredths to half an inch in during the daytime, and then .25”-.75” overnight, with total rain coverage at 80%. Sunday we have additional showers bringing .25”-.75” over 90% of the state. Next Monday we can expect .1”-.6” from showers with 80% coverage. As we already mentioned, Tuesday may bring a mix of clouds and sun from US 50 north, although we can’t rule out a renegade shower, but from US 50 southward, scattered showers can deliver up to .25” Next Wednesday more organized showers return with rain totals from a few hundredths to .5” and 90% coverage. Then showers bring .1”-.6” for Thursday and on Friday up to .3” with 70% coverage each day. All told, combined we see rains from Saturday through next Friday from 1.25”-3.5 over 100% of the state. The map shows rain totals through next Friday.
We finish the 10 day window with a hint of dry weather for next Saturday, the 22nd. However, we think it will be short lived. We start the extended 11-16 day period with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms all weekend for Sunday the 23rd, but rain totals look a little smaller, around .25”-.5”, while coverage is dropping to 60%. The rest of the extended window has drier weather for the Monday 24th and most of Tuesday the 25th. That evening showers develop and continue off and on through Wednesday the 26th. That has the potential to trigger a few hundredths to .4”, but with only 50% coverage. We finish our forecast window on the 27th with clouds giving way to sun. Overall, this forecast is still too wet.