After a hot and dry weekend, we turn the script dramatically this week. In fact, this is a fairly easy forecast this morning, because we do not see much day today difference in weather conditions.
Today, we continue the dry pattern for one more day. We will be precipitation free over the entire state. However, we likely will not be quite as warm, as clouds will be building as the day progresses. These clouds are coming in ahead of our next system and a major pattern change. Rains start tonight overnight in northern Indiana, mostly north of US 24. The rains tonight will not be overly impressive, but rains nonetheless. We expect a few hundredths to a quarter inch over 70% of the region from US 24 northward. But, this signals the beginning of a wet period that stretches the rest of the week. We have rains for tomorrow, Wednesday, and early Thursday. We may get a 12-18 hour break Thursday, and then heavy thunderstorms are back overnight Thursday night, with rains Friday, Saturday and early Sunday. Rains return Sunday night and go through Monday. Rains combined for the period will be from 1-3.5” with 100% coverage. The map below shows rain totals through next Monday evening.
In the extended period, models are inconsistent. We think there is a chance of some scattered, light shower action over the state from the 28th through the 29th, but coverage will only be about 50% of the state. The next good chance at a strong front sweeping through the eastern corn belt will be around July 3rd, with rain totals mostly of a half an inch or less.
So, this week will be “catch up week” on moisture, after the warm, dry past few days. Temperatures will not be as warm. Today we have trouble seeing high temps reach yesterday, due to the building clouds. Then, as the rain falls, and the clouds are in the rest of the week, we likely see temps back closer to normal. That temp profile holds into next week. The end of the 10-day forecast window and the extended period will see warming back in the region, as south winds dominate, and the drier atmospheric profile allows for quicker heating of the atmosphere. However, after a wet 7-8 day period, we should expect high humidities to be the normal as the calendar flips from June to July.