More rain over the state today, but today, the action looks to have a bit more of a southern bias. We expect scattered showers and thunderstorms more in central and southern Indiana. That is still not to say we won’t see some action up north…but the best chances today are central and south. Tomorrow, another wave of moisture sweeps in. We have rain and still like the potential for strong thunderstorms. The best chance for the strong to severe weather is later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night past sunset. Showers and storms continue Friday statewide.
For Saturday, we will keep scattered showers around, but honestly think we may start to see precipitation action taper off. There is a good chance of little to no new rain for Saturday afternoon and evening. Then for Sunday we look to be dry over the northern two thirds of the state, but we see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the southern third of Indiana. Monday, we start off next week with scattered showers, but also a mix of clouds and sun, as action looks to wind down.
All told, from today through next Sunday at midnight, we likely can pick up at least another 1-2 inches of rain across the state. This does not take into account the rains from yesterday and back into Monday afternoon and evening. Some areas will be able to exceed 2 inches if those strong thunderstorms develop tomorrow night.
We are mostly dry now for Monday, and models have been able to come to consensus on a drier forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday period as well. Our forecast had remained dry, and the models are starting to align there. We do have the allow for scattered showers to pop up, particularly in southern Indiana, later Wednesday afternoon, but coverage will be limited to about 30% of the state. This will turn into a nice rain event statewide for Thursday, with .25”-1” rains possible, and coverage at 75%. Action will be leaving to the east for next Friday.
The extended 11-16 day period keeps dry weather around to start through the 3rd. A strong front working through the central corn belt hits a strong ridge over the eastern third of the country and falls apart. A strong surface high pressure looks to build in over the eastern third of the country underneath that ridge for a large chunk of the extended period, and that will be tough for any front or moisture to overcome. That leads to a return of warm air for early in July.
Cooler air is on the way, thanks to the rains the next couple of days and a sagging cold front. Today will be near normal, but tomorrow through the weekend we can be below normal on our daytimes highs for this time of year. Temps moderate to near normal for next Tuesday and we will be above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, going into the turn of the month.