Rain and thunderstorm action continues today, but we are nearing the end of the moderate to heavy rain pattern. Low pressure will lift out of the eastern corn belt later today through tomorrow and we will rain taper off. But, before we get there, we do have to deal with another soggy day. Rain and thunderstorm action will be in over 100% of the state today, but the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rains will be focused more on the northern half to third of the state. We think rain totals today can be another half to 1.5”. The map shows rain totals from right now through tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow will be dominated by a lot of clouds on the backside of the low that is leaving the region. This will allow for a little bit of light moisture to linger over the state. Coverage will be only about 50%, but we can see a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Generally, its just going to be a cloudy and damp feeling start to the weekend.
Sunday and Monday are mostly dry over the state. There is a chance for a few pop-up showers near the river on Sunday and some afternoon cloudiness in northeast IN, but generally this will be the first fully dry set of days in a while. The dryness does not last long, however.
Rains are back for late Tuesday night through Wednesday. There is a good deal of model disagreement on how long the rains last, with some models looking for scattered showers all the way into the following weekend. We think that is overdone but will admit that our atmospheric profile will be wet enough that it will not take much to trigger scattered showers. Even still, we are looking at half to 1.5” rains at midweek next week, but we will confine our rains to the Tuesday night through Thursday midday timeframe for now. This is not much of a deviation from our prior forecast and gives us a chance to monitor how we transition to drier weather this weekend and gain some clues to how the atmosphere wants to react going forward. We may have to increase rain totals and duration next week, but this morning, we are leaving things alone.
The extended pattern looks wetter this morning. Now, again we have some serious model disagreement here too. But, this time we are swinging our forecast wetter because one key ingredient seems to be fading. That ingredient is a strong surface high over the southeast and the accompanying upper level ridge we have discussed the previous couple of days. With out that ridge, we are not able to steer fronts around the region. So, we are going wetter, and looking for scattered showers for Sunday the 1st through the 3rd. This moisture will be minor, with combined totals up to about .5”. Coverage on any given day will be about 50% of the area, with combined 3-day coverage at 90%. Then we see a stronger front for late the 3rd through the 5th. This front brings half to 2-inch rains to nearly all of the state. Then we turn off drier for the remainder of the 11-16 day forecast window.
Temps will be cool the next few days, with below normal daytime highs through the weekend. We bounce back to near normal for Monday and Tuesday, and then we go above normal for the remainder of the 10-day period on into early July. In fact, temperatures next week will be much above normal to finish the week, as warm air builds for the start of July.