Scattered rain showers move from Illinois into western Indiana by midday today but will not expand to statewide coverage until closer to evening. Then from overnight through tomorrow we see good rain and thunderstorm action bringing .25”-1.5” of rain to 90% of the state. There are very good chances of strong thunderstorms and a threat of severe weather. We will need those to see precipitation totals get up toward the higher end of the range.
We dry down Thursday and will make some changes removing scattered light action in southern Indiana that day and will also remove scattered light action in NW Indiana for Friday. That means we now are looking at 4 days in a row of sunny and dry weather from Thursday through Sunday. Temps will build to slightly above normal levels but will not be overly hot.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop overnight Sunday night into Monday up north, and then work in over the entire state for the balance of Monday through very early Tuesday morning. Rain totals will be from a quarter to three quarters of an inch with coverage at 80% of the state. Mixed clouds and sun return for the balance of Tuesday.
For the Independence Day holiday on the 4th, we are going to have to increase our rain chances this morning. It looks like the minor front we had been looking for on the 5th has decided to speed up slightly and arrive for the 4th. Moisture totals are not impressive, perhaps a few hundredths to a tenth or two, but we can’t say we stay completely dry either. So, just be away of the minor action.
We are then dry for the 5th through the 8th.
Changes in the extended 11-16 day window means we are looking at our front there to shift back to the 9th, allowing for .1”-.5” to develop over the eastern corn belt, and coverage will be around 70%. A strong high still will try to develop by the end of the 16-day window, and that would promote a dry stretch into mid-month.
Temperatures today will stay below normal, but tomorrow through the rest of the 10-day period, we will be a bit above normal. There is not significant heat, as we mentioned above, but we think that highs will average about 2-4 degrees above normal for this time of year as we flip the calendar into July and go through the holiday weekend.
Our general sentiment is unchanged this morning. We still think this pattern still brings timely moisture, but just not as much of it the farther out we go.